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Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine The morale of the people up there is bad. Bremer County, Iowa Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. . Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. And its never going to come back.. Jim Hoft. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. We have become so divided. A lot of people think things are. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. About The Author. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. He loves this country. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. But according to the. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. This is a high farming community.. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. bellwether. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. That is a very good thing to have. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Its just not that great, Paul said. Im not even sure what direction were going.. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. People need to get a job, get out and work. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. He cares about the American people.. I think its very political right now, honestly. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. 'I Should Start Voting'. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Right now, its horrible. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Their fear is real, mine is. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. I think all politicians are crooks. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. He considers Trump pro-life. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. Im not happy with the way things are now. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. It will cycle through. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. I trust the system implicitly, he said. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Republican Gov. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Youre not getting anybody perfect. He says Democratic Gov. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. And we just want that to continue. I would never vote any other way. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Theres too much corruption. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election.